A major setback for Donald Trump in the US midterms, where the Democrats wrested control of Congress, is likely to have implications for India as well as Pakistan. Here’s how?

The Democratic Party’s takeover of both chambers of the US Congress has dealt a major blow to US President Donald Trump – a result that is likely to have implications for India as well as Pakistan. For India, a weakened Trump could mean greater scrutiny of his tariff and immigration policies, and possibly more room to negotiate a favourable trade deal. For Pakistan, the change could bring uncomfortable scrutiny into crypto and defence deals it has pursued with Trump’s inner circle. This, in turn, has helped Pakistan win Trump’s attention.

While Trump will be in office till January 2029, he will no longer be able to push through legislation and pursue his agenda as per his will. He will face a more hostile Congress in the final two years of his presidency. The Democrats have already signalled they would investigate Trump’s foreign policy decisions as well as his family’s business interests.

For India and Pakistan, however, the implications could be quite different. Stay with us, and we will explain why.

US MIDTERM RESULTS: HOW IT MAY IMPACT INDIA?

Following the drubbing, Trump will be eager for a major foreign policy win to project strength to his MAGA base. A swift trade deal with India is likely to be high on his agenda.

India, on the other hand, will likely see the midterm result as an opportunity to push through a favourable deal, which has been deadlocked for months. India, in fact, has been holding out until it receives an assurance that it will secure better tariff terms than its competitors like China and Vietnam.

Separately, the Trump administration is also currently investigating India and other countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act to determine whether they are using strategic excess manufacturing capacity to hurt the US economy.

These issues have become a stumbling block in securing a trade deal.

Now, a weakened Trump might give Indian negotiators some breathing room, and they may feel less pressure to rush into an agreement. However, on the flip side, it would not necessarily make the road to stronger ties any easier.

Make no mistake. Trump can continue to wield his executive powers to impose tariffs. A Democrat-controlled Congress cannot automatically undo these decisions.

What it can do is examine how Trump’s tariffs might be affecting American businesses and consumers, increasing pressure on the administration to course correct.

H-1B VISAS: CAN INDIA EXPECT SOME RELIEF?

Another area where the change in the balance of power could matter to India is immigration.

Trump’s crackdown on skilled foreign workers, particularly the H-1B visa program, has caused uncertainty for Indian professionals and American technology companies that depend on them.

The administration has not only imposed a stiff USD 1,00,000 fee for H-1B visas, but also directed federal agencies to scrutinise H-1B visa applications from companies laying off American workers.

Both the moves have indirectly impacted Indian techies, who dominate the H-1B visa program.

In fact, around three out of every four approved H-1B visas are cornered by Indian nationals, making them the backbone of America’s tech sector.

Several Democratic lawmakers have slammed Trump’s H-1B moves. With Democrats now set to control Congress, there is likely to be increased scrutiny of the economic consequences of restricting skilled immigration, particularly for US tech firms.

While there may be no short-term relief, this may spell good news for Indian techies in the longer run.

However, all might not be rosy for India. Democrats have historically been critical of India’s human rights record – a charge that has invited pushback from New Delhi.

Democrats are expected to focus more closely on the state of religious freedom and the treatment of minority groups in India.

COULD TRUMP’S DEALS WITH PAK COME UNDER SCRUTINY?

For Pakistan, the takeover of the US Congress by the Democrats could create a different kind of headache.

Islamabad has spent the past year-and-a-half building closer ties with Trump, mostly through flattery and by massaging his inflated ego. Some of that effort ran through business deals with links to Trump’s family.

It includes an MoU with an affiliate of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s main cryptocurrency business. US special envoy Steve Witkoff is one of its co-founders.

Then, earlier this year, Pakistan signed a deal for an unspecified number of unmanned aerial systems with US-based company Powerus, which has close ties to the sons of Trump.

From the Pakistani side, both deals were spearheaded by the ubiquitous army chief Asim Munir, whom Trump has called “my favourite field marshal”.

Last September, Pakistan also signed a $500 million MoU with the US firm US Strategic Metals (USSM) to develop critical minerals.

There is also the deal for the renovation of the Roosevelt Hotel in New York, which is owned by Pakistan’s national airline. As per reports, Witkoff played a crucial role in facilitating the arrangement.

Now, a takeover of both chambers of Congress by Democrats will mean more investigations and hearings against Trump and his inner circle. The Democrats have already signalled they would investigate the Trump family’s stock trading and cryptocurrency ventures. The business dealings of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and son Donald Trump Jr. will likely face greater scrutiny.

In such a scenario, it may drag the Pakistan military into the dragnet of investigations.

THE BIG PICTURE

A change in the balance of power in the US Congress might have different implications for India and Pakistan.

For India, the drubbing of the Republicans could provide greater room to negotiate with Trump on trade without feeling compelled to accept unfavourable terms. It, however, may not end the turbulent period of India-US ties.

For Pakistan, the concern is more about the possibility of US Congress scrutiny of the business relationships it has built with Trump’s inner circle.