ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Manila will urge talks as US-Iran hostilities intensify. The gathering also tests the bloc’s response to Myanmar, the South China Sea and wider security anxieties.

Southeast Asia’s top diplomats are set to express alarm over renewed hostilities in the Middle East as they gather in the Philippine capital for annual talks that will also be joined by counterparts from the United States, China, Russia and the European Union. The three-day meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, chaired this year by the Philippines, are expected to focus on some of the world’s most difficult conflicts, including the latest fighting involving Iran.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are among those attending. Ukraine’s top diplomat, Andrii Sybiha, has been invited for a Friday ceremony marking ASEAN’s 1976 non-aggression treaty, but he is not a participant in the ASEAN meetings that Rubio and Lavrov will attend. Rubio and Lavrov have not announced any plans to meet each other or Sybiha in Manila.

ASEAN foreign ministers will first meet among themselves on Tuesday and are expected to discuss the hostilities between the United States and Iran, which have spread to other parts of the Middle East and raised fears of a full-blown war. Two Southeast Asian diplomats told The Associated Press that the ministers plan to issue a joint statement expressing alarm over the developments and urging both sides to resume talks. The fighting has again threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of global oil supplies passed before the war.

Southeast Asia, home to more than 680 million people, depends heavily on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been badly hit by global supply and price shocks linked to the Iran war. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in March to ensure fuel, food and other basic goods remained available and to prevent hoarding and profiteering. Washington’s focus on the war in Iran and the diversion of military resources to the Middle East have also raised concerns over its attention to Asia-Pacific issues, including China’s actions in the South China Sea and against Taiwan, which the Trump administration has said it would help deter.

Rubio’s participation in the ASEAN meetings is aimed at renewing US assurances. State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said in Washington, “The secretary’s visit advances a clear US priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security and prosperity for the region and for the American people.” On the sidelines of the meetings, Rubio is also expected to take part in a meeting of the Quad, made up of the US, India, Japan and Australia. The grouping, first formed in 2007, is seen as a key part of the US strategy to counter China and has repeatedly been criticised by Beijing as a US effort to contain its growing influence.

Alongside external conflicts, ASEAN ministers are under growing pressure to do more on disputes within the region, especially Myanmar’s civil war and tensions in the South China Sea. Since Myanmar’s military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, more than 8,100 people have been killed and nearly 22,500 remained in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. A five-point peace plan issued by ASEAN leaders in 2021 has failed to stop the violence, largely because Myanmar’s military-backed government did not comply. As a result, ASEAN has barred the country’s leaders and foreign minister from its top-level meetings, including this week’s gathering in Manila.

In an attempt to break the deadlock, ASEAN foreign ministers led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro met Myanmar’s foreign minister for the first time in five years earlier this month in Bangkok, where they renewed calls to reduce the violence and push dialogue among all sides. Lazaro, in her role as ASEAN’s special envoy, and Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow then met senior representatives of ethnic armed groups from Myanmar in Pattaya for consultations. Rights groups criticised the meeting with Myanmar’s top diplomat, Tin Maung Swe, saying it weakened ASEAN’s ban on engagement with senior officials and rewarded the generals without securing any concession. Lazaro said, “It was not and should not be mischaracterised as an abandonment of the five-point consensus. The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict.”

ASEAN foreign ministers will also meet Wang Yi in Manila to discuss negotiations on a proposed code of conduct aimed at preventing long-running territorial disputes in the South China Sea from getting out of control. The disputes involve China, Taiwan and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, with confrontations in the contested waters rising sharply in recent years, particularly between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces. The Manila meetings are thus expected to take up both global crises and regional flashpoints, with ASEAN seeking a coordinated response on the Middle East, Myanmar and the South China Sea.

With PTI Inputs