Pakistan has projected a 22% irrigation water shortage for Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi season, threatening wheat production and food security. While Islamabad has repeatedly accused India of undermining its water rights by placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan’s own water regulator has pointed to inadequate storage, lower river inflows and delayed infrastructure projects as the reason for the shortage.

Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has projected a 22% shortage of irrigation water for two of its major provinces of Punjab and Sindh in the midst of the Rabi season, when major crops like wheat, barley, mustard, gram, among others are planted. While Islamabad has frequently accused India of denying it its fair share of water resources after New Delhi put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, this shortage, is ironically, a result of Pakistan’s own actions.

According to a report by Karachi-based newspaper Dawn, the IRSA, the Pakistan government’s body responsible for regulating and overseeing the distribution of water from the Indus River system among the provinces, projected a 22% water shortage amid the Rabi season, which runs from October 1 to March 31.

The shortfall is set to affect Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, and Sindh, another major farming province, as farmers prepare to sow wheat and other winter crops. According to a report by the Associated Press of Pakistan, more than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the irrigation system fed by the Indus Basin, making water availability in the river system critical to the country’s food security.

Ironically, in a statement released by the IRSA, and reported by Dawn and the Associated Press of Pakistan, this shortfall is being attributed to delays in the completion of several hydropower projects in the two provinces.

This comes even as several Pakistani politicians have been loudly claiming that the country is being denied its rightful share of water in the Indus system by India. New Delhi put the Indus Water Treaty, signed back in 1960, into a state of abeyance after Pakistani terrorists carried out the Pahalgan terror attack in April 2025. They brutally gunned down 26 civilians after asking about their faith.

It was after the attack that the Centre put the IWT on hold and launched Operation Sindoor against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism.

Keeping the IWT in abeyance does not mean India has stopped the flow of river water into Pakistan. It means India has suspended treaty obligations, including routine hydrological data-sharing and advance notifications, while the rivers continue to flow across the border.

WHY IS PAKISTAN PREDICTING A 22% IRRIGATION WATER SHORTAGE?

Pakistan’s projected 22% irrigation water shortage for the 2026-27 Rabi season stems from lower river inflows, inadequate reservoir storage and delays in key infrastructure projects, according to reports in Dawn and the Associated Press of Pakistan.

The Associated Press of Pakistan reported that actual inflows during the April to September 2026 Kharif season were 8% below projections and 22% lower than the previous year. River inflows depend on rainfall, snow and glacier melting, and the temperature of a region. Reservoir storage stood at 9.343 million acre-feet (MAF) on September 30, against an anticipated 12.014 MAF.

According to Dawn, more than 3 MAF of water could not be stored at Tarbela Dam because of filling restrictions imposed by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) during construction.

IRSA expressed concern over delays in the Tunnel 4 Low-Level Outlet and Tunnel 5 Hydropower Project, urging that they “should be completed as early as possible” as they were “already substantially delayed and causing shortages in the provinces during the Kharif seasons.” According to the report by Dawn, both projects were supposed to be completed by March 2025.

Constraints at Tarbela on the Indus River also reportedly forced authorities to increase releases from Mangla Dam, hampering its replenishment ahead of Rabi season.

As such, following a meeting on October 7, IRSA’s Advisory Committee approved a projected 22% shortage for Punjab and Sindh, while exempting Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from supply cuts, Dawn reported.

Punjab was allocated 15.564 MAF and Sindh 11.748 MAF, while Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were assigned 1.171 MAF and 0.710 MAF, respectively. IRSA said the shortage was calculated “based on the agreed inflows and other system operational parameters” and could be periodically reviewed.

According to Dawn, internal assessments by Punjab, WAPDA and IRSA had projected a water shortage of up to 26%, but the officially approved estimate was reduced following objections from Sindh.

WATER SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO LOWER WHEAT HARVESTS IN PAKISTAN

The projected irrigation water shortage threatens to further weaken Pakistan’s wheat cultivation, even as the country grapples with a supply deficit following last year’s below-target production. According to Dawn, Pakistan faced an estimated wheat shortfall of more than two million tonnes despite entering the previous Rabi season without a projected water shortage.

The deficit forced the government to order imports of one million tonnes of wheat, including 750,000 tonnes in the first phase, that is scheduled for delivery in November this year. Against a production target of 29.7 million tonnes and estimated domestic consumption of 31.9 million tonnes, Pakistan is believed to have produced around 27.5 million tonnes last year, Dawn reported.

The water outlook is considerably tighter this year. Pakistan entered the previous Rabi season with around 13 million acre-feet (MAF) of carryover water stored in its dams, nearly 27% more than the current level. Wheat, the principal Rabi crop and the staple in much of Pakistan, could therefore face additional pressure from reduced irrigation supplies. Other crops grown during the season include gram, lentils, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard.

Despite this, Pakistan has accused India of blocking the flow of the Indus and depriving it of its fair share of its water resources ever since New Delhi put the IWT in abeyance. For instance, PM Shebaz Sharif, speaking at the UN General Assembly back in September, declared before the world that any attempt at diversion of Indus waters will be “treated as an act of war.”

Most recently, on October 6, Dawn reported Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar at the International Water Symposium in Vienna as saying that, “Any attempt to deprive Pakistan of the waters rightfully allocated to it would have serious implications for regional peace and security.”

However, the factors identified in Pakistan’s own water regulator’s assessment point to a more immediate domestic challenge. The IRSA has highlighted inadequate reservoir storage and delays in critical hydropower and water infrastructure projects, including works at Tarbela Dam, as contributors to the shortage, rather than blaming India for putting a water sharing treaty in cold storage.