The war thrust upon Afghanistan by Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif, the unchecked protests, and the killing of protesters at the US consulate in Karachi have the one same motive. Deny Trump the pound of flesh he might seek during the Iran war.
It might sound counter-intuitive, but firefighters themselves, at times, start fires. To control wildfires from reaching towns and cities, they start smaller, controlled fires. Those small fires consume the dry vegetation fuel and create a back line. This technique of starting smaller fires to fight an inferno is called backburning.
There is a reason why I am talking about the backburning technique at a time when the Middle East has been turned into a raging inferno. Because that has to do with the fire that the hybrid military-civilian leadership of Pakistan has started at home.
In waves of joint attacks, the US and Israel on February 28 hit Iran and took out its leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. It also conducted strikes at sites linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. Facing the worst-ever attack, Iran has responded with drone and missile strikes on Israel and US bases in the Middle East. In a never-before-seen situation, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain and even Oman, which doesn’t have any American base, have come under Iranian strikes. In Pakistan, where there were no Iranian strikes, over two dozen civilians have been killed.
In the newsroom, we had all been discussing that a US strike on Iran was imminent. That was a no-brainer given the war assets that President Donald Trump was accumulating in the region. The embassies in Israel had been sending back non-essential staff too. But when would the strike happen was being debated? As I was analysing the situation with Kamlesh Singh, our in-house columnist and satirist, on Friday, he emphatically said the attack would come on Saturday (February 28). And it did. Some of the analysis stems from my discussions with him.
I will try to explain here how the war that Pakistan has thrust upon Afghanistan and the deaths of protesters are connected with the attacks in Iran. It is also connected with the force planned for Gaza, but that is an analysis for another day. Today, it is all about the US-Israel-Iran and the Afghanistan-Pakistan wars.
Come to think of it, the massive Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan of February 27 didn’t have any trigger. The suicide attack on a mosque in Islamabad took place on February 6, around three weeks ago. IS claimed the attack, but Islamabad blamed it on the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan, had carried out airstrikes on February 21, but on February 27 declared an “open war” with Afghanistan.
Though there have been clashes between the two, with the last major one in October 2025, the intensity and the timing of the latest Pakistani attack makes one curious. War is no small business. Every rocket fired, every fighter jet flown costs a bomb. Pakistan is living on doles and grants, so why did it add to its burden? Why did it set its house on fire?
Pakistani army chief Asim Munir is a master at starting fires to fight fires. He has fought several domestic fires that way, but an inferno was building up in the Middle East, and he probably knew when it would spread.
Pakistan and Iran share a 900-km-long border, which runs between the Pakistani province of Balochistan and the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
Though not officially acknowledged, Pakistan has also rented out facilities to the US military to be used as bases, with one being at the Noor Khan Air Base. There was a buzz that the US stepped in to mediate a ceasefire after India hit the Nur Khan Air Base during Operation Sindoor in May 2025.
Another acknowledgement of US presence came when Pakistan told Afghanistan after the October 2025 battle that drone attacks came from a “third party” and it was beyond it to control the attacks.
We have all witnessed how President Trump has been holding frequent meetings with both Munir, who is a Field Marshal and the de facto ruler of Pakistan, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Knowing how unabashedly transactional Trump is, it was expected that he would have wanted to extract his pound of flesh during the strikes on Iran. That pound of flesh would come in the form of logistical support.
Several close allies of Trump in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, refused to either be launchpads or allow overflying rights to American jets to attack Iran. This is why Pakistan became important.
Pakistan is the only American ally that shares a border with Iran and if things went wrong, the US would have sought to use air strips and other military assets in Pakistan to help suppress the Iranian regime.
This is one of the worst situations for Munir and Sharif to be in. They have gone beyond their means to please Trump and cannot risk riling him. But at home, the hybrid regime cannot be seen allying with Israel and the US in attacking Iran, a Shia Islamic country. Munir and Sharif would face a major backlash in Pakistan, which has around 20% Shia population, if they were seen to having any role in the attack on Iran. Subsequently, if the hybrid regime was seen in any post-strike assistance, that too would have invited major blowback.
Internationally, Pakistan would also have lost its face as it projects itself as an essential part of the Islamic Ummah while begging from the Arab countries.
The hybrid regime was caught in Catch 22—it could neither displease Trump nor have any link to the Iran attack. Therefore, Asim Munir started backburning. It set its house on fire by attacking Taliban-led Afghanistan and declaring an “open war”.
There’s a reason why I am saying house on fire, and not border on fire. Like the Americans and Soviets, Pakistan doesn’t have the advantage of geographical distance. The ragtag Taliban air force sent drones hurtling close to Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and also targeted the Nur Khan air base. Munir knows this all too well.
Then there were the attacks on the US consulates in Karachi and Lahore and a UN office in Gilgit-Baltistan by protesters. With 10 protesters shot dead at the consulate in Karachi by US Marshals, the overall toll reached 35.
That protests would break out in Pakistan over Khamenei’s killing was a known fact. What was curious to note was that no effective perimeter was established outside the US consulate in Karachi and nothing much was done by Pakistani agencies to stop violent protesters from reaching the main building and the consul general’s office.
It isn’t difficult to understand that Pakistan might have wanted American soldiers to act.
The intended message was the motive. “Hi Boss, would have loved to help in your moment, but you know this would make matters, which are already bad, far worse.”
Combined with the war against Afghanistan, it works as a perfect rouse for Munir to deny Trump any assistance.
Munir will tell, or has already told, the US that its borders are burning, and it has a full-scale war at home to take care of, and cannot be involved in any way with its strikes in Iran.
And he has Trump’s backing already on the war.
“I would [intervene in the war]. But I get along with Pakistan very well. They have a great Prime Minister, a great general [Munir]… Two of the people that I really respect a lot. Pakistan is doing terrifically well,” Trump said on February 28 when asked if he would mediate in the Af-Pak war.
So, the battle on that front has been won by Munir. But what about the fire at home?
Munir believes this is a fire that Islamabad-Rawalpindi will still be able to control. Otherwise, it would have been sucked into the Middle Eastern inferno.
The war thrust upon Afghanistan had no trigger. But this was the motive.
I had written on April 24, 2025, just two days after the Pahalgam terror attacks, how Munir, besieged by woes, was desperate for a mini-war with India. A mini-war we did have later in May. Though Pakistan lost the war, Munir emerged victorious and got promoted as a Field Marshal. The point is, Munir knows how to start a war to wriggle out of tight situations.
The war in Afghanistan, which Pakistan is waging, owes its spark to the bigger Iranian inferno that was to come. The unchecked protests at consulates are also a part of that game. It is Munir’s way of setting fire at home to escape the responsibility of helping Trump.
