Elections across England, Scotland, and Wales may reshape British politics, potentially weakening Labour and Conservatives while boosting populist and nationalist parties, signalling a possible shift away from two-party dominance.
Millions of British voters cast their ballots on Thursday in local and regional elections that are expected to deal a huge blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and renew questions over his ability to govern.
Elections for almost 5,000 council seats in England and to the parliaments in Scotland and Wales could signal the beginning of the end of Britain’s traditional two-party system if voters opt for populist and nationalist parties rather than the once-dominant Labour and Conservatives.
Polls suggest the populist Reform UK of Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage will expand its control of councils in England, and could form the main opposition in Scotland and Wales to the pro-independence Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru.
Challenging from the left, the Greens look set to threaten Labour’s strongholds in London and other major centres.
The prospect of losing swathes of council seats in England, the end of its dominance of the Welsh Senedd assembly and a possible third-place finish for Scotland’s Holyrood parliament, mean Starmer looks set to come under pressure again to quit or at least set out a timetable for his departure.
Investors have pushed Britain’s borrowing costs higher in recent weeks, in part over fears that he could be replaced by a more left-wing leader, willing to spend more.
STARMER VOWS TO FIGHT ON
Starmer, 63, elected on a landslide less than two years ago, has vowed to fight on, pledging to tackle a cost-of-living crisis in Britain stoked by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
“We can rise to this moment together – become a stronger, more resilient and more united nation with opportunities for all, or we can sink into the politics of grievance and division,” Starmer wrote on Substack at the weekend.
“The answer to this moment, to the world we face today, is not passive government nor is it the populists who look out at the world and offer only easy answers that would make us weaker, or bankrupt. This is a time for patriots.”
Appearing to signal another possible reset after the elections, Starmer promised an “active, interventionist government”.
Starmer will hope he gets a chance to try to again relaunch his premiership, after spending weeks fending off calls for him to stand down over his appointment of Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US.
That appointment has blown up into a full-scale row over who knew what and when about Mandelson’s ties to the late convicted US sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his business connections with Russia and China.
Starmer sacked Mandelson last September after a trove of emails revealed the depth of his ties with Epstein. British police arrested Mandelson in February on suspicion of misconduct in public office, but he has not been charged. He does not face allegations of sexual misconduct.
LABOUR FIGURE WARNS LAWMAKERS AGAINST STARMER CHALLENGE
Labour lawmakers and activists say they have often been met with anger from voters while campaigning.
Losses in the elections will only deepen the frustration with Starmer and his Downing Street operation among many in his party, and some Labour lawmakers say there might be a move against him afterwards, possibly in the form of a letter calling on him to set out a timetable for his departure.
But the path to replace him is not easy.
Two frontrunners to succeed him if he goes – Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner – are not yet in positions to mount leadership bids, and other potential rivals seem unwilling to move against him for now.
Former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, who signed a letter in 2006 calling on then prime minister Tony Blair to name a date for his resignation, advised lawmakers to refrain from making the same mistake.
“I would tell them not to be as reckless as we were,” Watson, now a member of the upper house, said in his own Substack column. “Firstly, it will not work,” he said. “Secondly … voters will see a party talking to itself while the country is shouting at it.”
