Pakistan’s decision to halt trade with Afghanistan, which defence minister Khwaja Asif said was “a blessing in disguise”, is backfiring. This is why the ban is hitting Pakistan’s own economy hard while the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is finding alternative routes and partners like India.
Pakistan’s DG ISPR, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry’s statement warning Afghanistan—”blood and business cannot go together”—now seems to have backfired and is hurting Islamabad itself. With bilateral relations between the two neighbours sinking to their lowest point, following the brief border clash and the mass expulsion of Afghan nationals during harsh winter months, the trade war between Pakistan and Afghanistan has erupted, and its effects are falling disproportionately on Pakistan.
Since the closure of border trade points on October 11, Afghanistan has quickly adapted by redirecting commerce through Iran, India, and the Central Asian republics. Pakistan, however, has taken a severe hit. The halt in cross-border trade is dealing a heavy blow to Pakistan’s already fragile economy. It is undermining its trade, manufacturing, and export sectors, according to several reports, including one in Dawn, the Karachi-based English daily.
Pakistan’s Pathan-dominated Khyber Pakhtunkhwa erupted in outrage over the trade closure, with manufacturers and traders demanding the immediate lifting of the ban.
Just last week, a group of Pakistani businessmen rushed to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, pleading with him to intervene and help restore trade with Afghanistan. They said they had already lost trillions of rupees because of the 45-day closure of the Durand Line crossings, reported the Kabul-based Ariana News Network.
A Pakistan-based journalist, writing for Japan’s Nikkei Asia, reported that Pakistan’s trade war with Afghanistan has now “boomeranged” back onto its own economy.
The standoff hasn’t just frozen two-way trade. It has triggered shortages, price spikes, and production disruptions for Pakistani industries across major ones that depend on Afghanistan for both imports and exports. Not just on the ground, even online, social media is flooded with debates and verbal spats among citizens, civil society members, and other stakeholders. Some Afghans are sharing videos of Pakistani mandis, showing piles of produce lying unsold with no buyers in sight.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said that the United Nations has urged Islamabad to reconsider its decision to close trade routes with Afghanistan, reported Tolo News. Dar added that he would discuss the matter with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir.
Notably, Afghanistan ranks among the world’s poorest countries, with a projected GDP per capita of just $434, which is lower than many African nations such as Burundi and Somalia. According to the United Nations Development Programme’s 2025 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, more than 64% of Afghanistan’s population lives in poverty.
Afghanistan’s economy is in shambles, but the Taliban regime is attempting to rebuild it by diversifying trade. This effort was evident in two back-to-back Afghan delegations that visited India recently, including Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce, Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi. The Taliban regime is also working to open trade channels with Turkey.
Pakistan’s economy has also been affected by the suspension of cross-border trade with Afghanistan, enough to send shockwaves across sectors.
PAK CEMENT MANUFACTURING WORST HIT; FOLLOWED BY MEDICINES: REPORT
Following the prolonged border shutdown, the cement industry in Pakistan is among the worst hit. With Afghan coal imports and cement exports coming to a complete halt, Pakistani manufacturers are forced to switch to far costlier coal from South Africa, Indonesia, and Mozambique, Dawn reported.
The price of local coal has shot up from PKR 30,000–32,000 to PKR 42,000–45,000 per tonne, while Afghan coal, which was once available at PKR 30,000–38,00, has disappeared from the market altogether.
The fallout hasn’t stopped at coal or cement. The ripple effects of the trade war are now being faced across multiple sectors across Pakistan.
With the shutdown in place for 48 days now, exports of medicines and agricultural goods have virtually collapsed too. Industries that once depended on Afghan trade now face a bleak future, reported Profit by Pakistan Today.
Take pharmaceuticals. Pakistani firms used to export roughly US$187 million worth of medicines annually to Afghanistan. Now, with border routes blocked, many consignments are stuck in factories. Some drugs can’t even be rerouted to local markets because they aren’t registered for sale domestically. The producers are now left with unsold stock and growing losses.
FRUITS, VEGGIES DESTROYED IN PAK; TRADERS, WORKERS STARE AT BLEAK FUTURE
Perishable fruits and vegetables, which were once among Pakistan’s most vital exports to Afghanistan, have also been hit hard. The trade freeze has brought most export flows to a halt. Shipments are stuck or even destroyed. As a result, prices of imported fruits have doubled in Pakistan, forcing consumers to pay much more while many exporters have written off entire consignments.
On the revenue side, the impact is no less grim. With export volumes plummeting, tax-collection from transit duties and customs has dropped sharply, depriving Pakistan of valuable foreign reserves when the economy can least afford it.
For many small-time traders and transport workers, this is more than numbers on a page. Entire chains of businesses, once humming with cross-border trade, are now paralysed. Small traders who used to make ends meet are staring at bankruptcy; transporters face mounting debt, and labourers fear widespread joblessness, reported Dawn.
AFGHAN-PAK RELATIONS NOSEDIVED; TALIBAN WANS TRADERS TO SKIP PAK
Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have nosedived since the high after the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Pakistani airstrikes against “TTP hideouts inside Afghan territory”, and both sides accusing the other of sheltering terrorists, have made relations hostile with minimal trust between both parties. Peace talks collapsed, mistrust deepened, and the relationship steadily slid into open hostility.
The fallout has been severe. Violence has escalated with casualties on both sides, repeated border closures have choked off billions in cross-border trade, “terrorist attacks inside Pakistan” have surged, according to New Delhi-based think tank, ORF.
Squeezed by Pakistani restrictions and wary of depending on a single neighbour, the Taliban have begun pivoting away from Islamabad. Kabul is actively courting India for investments and market access, opening up alternative trade corridors through Iran and Central Asia, and even exporting goods to Russia.
Earlier in November, Afghanistan’s Deputy PM for Economic Affairs, Mullah Ghani Baradar, told the traders to “Immediately seek alternative routes to Pakistan”. He warned that “after this announcement, if any trader exports or imports via Pakistan, the Islamic Emirate will not cooperate when problems arise”.
PATHANS TURN UP HEAT ON PAK GOVT OVER AFGHAN TRADE CLOSURE
Manufacturers and traders in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), who share an ethnic affinity with most of the Afghans, are among the worst affected. They have demanded the government to reopen the Pakistan-Afghanistan trade routes without delay.
At a jirga (tribal council) at Bacha Khan Markaz in KP, businessmen, transporters, and chamber representatives demanded that the federal government of Shehbaz Sharif reopen the crossings immediately, citing massive losses to local businesses. Leaders of the Pashtun party, the ANP, slammed the government for double standards that it once “allowed trade with India” despite strained relations. But in the case of Afghanistan, it has blocked them. They called for dialogue, protection of Pakhtun economic rights, and restoration of cross-border commerce, reported Dawn on November 27.
Ironically, the warning that “blood and business cannot go together” by Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, has come full circle, with Pakistan itself bearing the brunt of halted trade with Afghanistan. While Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Asif has called the closures a “blessing in disguise” to block terrorists, ordinary businesses and workers are paying the real price.
