Afghanistan’s plan to divert the Kunar River is triggering alarm in Pakistan, threatening water supplies, energy security, and regional stability at a time of growing climate stress and diplomatic strain
Pakistan’s worsening water crisis could be entering a dangerous new phase, with the threat now emerging from its western border. The Taliban-led government in Afghanistan is advancing plans to divert water from the Kunar River towards Nangarhar, a move that could significantly cut downstream flows into Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and heighten regional tensions.
According to Afghan media reports, the proposal to transfer water from the Kunar River to the Darunta Dam in Nangarhar has already been approved by Afghanistan’s technical committee and awaits final approval. Kabul claims the project will help address chronic water shortages impacting large areas of farmland in eastern Afghanistan, especially in Nangarhar, where farmers have struggled with decreasing rainfall and groundwater levels.
However, for Pakistan, this development has sparked serious concern. The Kunar River is one of the most vital tributaries feeding Pakistan’s water system. It originates in the Hindu Kush mountains in Pakistan’s Chitral district, flows into Afghanistan, then loops back into Pakistan, eventually joining the Kabul River, which merges with the Indus near Attock. Along its course, the river supplies irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower to millions, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a region already facing insecurity and climate pressure.
Experts warn that any upstream diversion or dam construction by Afghanistan could drastically reduce water availability downstream. Such reductions could impact agriculture, household water supplies, and hydroelectric projects, worsening shortages in an area that relies heavily on the river. The timing of the Afghan plan heightens concerns, especially since it follows India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, leaving Pakistan increasingly vulnerable across multiple river systems at once.
Unlike the long-standing water-sharing agreement with India under the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan has no formal arrangement governing transboundary rivers with Afghanistan. This absence of a legal framework or arbitration mechanism limits Islamabad’s ability to challenge or sway Kabul’s decisions, raising fears that water may become a new source of conflict between the neighbours.
Analysts warn that this issue could create yet another fault line in the already strained Pakistan–Afghanistan relationship. Water stress, they say, has the potential to fuel political instability, economic hardship, and cross-border tensions if not addressed. As climate change intensifies competition over scarce water resources, rivers are increasingly seen as tools of leverage rather than symbols of cooperation.
With diplomacy now as vital as geography, Pakistan faces a complex challenge: securing its water future while navigating a volatile regional landscape where control over rivers could influence stability and conflict in the years to come.
