Russia is likely stationing nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, according to US researchers analysing satellite imagery. The move could significantly expand Moscow’s strike reach across Europe and heighten tensions with Nato.
Russia is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a move that could significantly enhance Moscow’s ability to strike targets across Europe, according to two US researchers who analysed satellite imagery.
The assessment by the researchers broadly aligns with US intelligence findings, said a person familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to share the information publicly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated his intention to deploy intermediate-range Oreshnik missiles in Belarus. The missile system is believed to have a range of up to 3,400 miles (5,500 km). However, the precise location of such deployment had not been reported earlier.
Experts say deploying the Oreshnik would highlight the Kremlin’s increasing reliance on nuclear deterrence as it seeks to discourage Nato members from supplying Ukraine with weapons capable of striking deep inside Russian territory.
The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while the Belarus Embassy declined to comment. Belarus’ state-run Belta news agency quoted Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying the deployment would not alter Europe’s balance of power and was “our response” to the West’s “aggressive actions.” The White House did not respond, and the CIA declined to comment.
REVISED RUSSIAN STRATEGY
The findings come from researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research and analysis organisation in Virginia. They said their conclusions were based on satellite imagery from Planet Labs, which showed infrastructure consistent with a Russian strategic missile base.
The researchers said they were about 90 percent certain that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be deployed at a former airbase near Krichev, about 190 miles (307 km) east of Minsk and roughly 300 miles (478 km) southwest of Moscow.
Russia test-fired a conventionally armed Oreshnik missile at a target in Ukraine in November 2024. Putin has claimed the weapon is impossible to intercept, citing speeds exceeding Mach 10.
John Foreman, a defence expert at Chatham House and former British defence attach in Moscow and Kyiv, said Putin plans to deploy the weapon “in Belarus to extend its range further into Europe.” Foreman added that the move could also be a reaction to the planned deployment in Germany next year of US conventional missiles, including the hypersonic Dark Eagle system.
The potential deployment comes just weeks before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining US-Russia agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons.
Putin said after a December 2024 meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that the Oreshnik could be stationed in Belarus in the second half of this year. Lukashenko later said the first missiles had already been deployed, without revealing their location. He added that up to 10 Oreshnik missiles could be based in the country.
The US researchers, however, assessed that the identified site could accommodate only three launchers, suggesting additional missiles may be stationed elsewhere.
HURRIED CONSTRUCTION SPOTTED
According to the researchers, Planet Labs imagery showed a rushed construction project beginning between August 4 and 12. One November 19 image revealed what Eveleth described as a “military-grade rail transfer point” secured by fencing, suitable for delivering missiles and launchers by train.
Lewis pointed to another key feature: a concrete pad poured at the end of a runway and later covered with earth, which he said was “consistent with a camouflaged launch point.”
Not all experts agree on the strategic value of the move. Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based specialist on Russian nuclear forces, said he was sceptical that deploying Oreshnik missiles in Belarus would give Moscow significant new military or political advantages beyond reassuring Minsk.
“I don’t see how this would be seen in the West…as kind of different from these being deployed in Russia,” Podvig said.
Lewis, however, argued that the deployment sends a strong political signal. “Can you imagine if we put a nuclear-armed Tomahawk (cruise missile) in Germany instead of just the conventional ones?” he said. “There is no military reason to put the system in Belarus, only political ones.”
The development comes as US President Donald Trump seeks a deal with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, while Kyiv continues to press Western allies for longer-range strike capabilities.
With Reuters inputs.
