Declassified transcripts show George W. Bush warned Vladimir Putin from 2001–2008 that China posed the biggest long-term threat, a view Putin downplayed while prioritising Western pressure on Russia.
China’s rise loomed larger than publicly acknowledged in private exchanges between former US President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Bush repeatedly warning that Beijing posed the biggest long-term strategic challenge facing both powers.
Newly released transcripts of Bush–Putin meetings and phone calls from 2001 to 2008 show that concerns over China surfaced early and resurfaced often, even as Washington and Moscow sparred over NATO expansion and missile defence. The records were made public by the National Security Archive following a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.
The issue first emerged during Bush and Putin’s initial face-to-face meeting on June 16, 2001, at Brdo Castle in Slovenia, where the two leaders were laying the groundwork for post-Cold War US–Russia relations. According to the transcripts, Bush stressed that Russia was “part of the West and not an enemy,” but warned that China’s trajectory would shape global politics for decades.
Bush returned to the subject in later meetings, including a September 16, 2005, Oval Office discussion, where he was blunt. “China is the biggest long-term problem for both of us,” Bush told Putin, according to the documents.
Putin was unconvinced. “More for you,” he replied, suggesting that China posed a greater challenge to the United States than to Russia. Bush pushed back, responding: “They’re not on our border,” acknowledging geography but arguing that Beijing’s long-term ambitions would affect both countries regardless.
The transcripts show a clear divergence in priorities. While Bush framed China as a systemic challenge to the global order, Putin repeatedly redirected the conversation to what he saw as more immediate threats, particularly NATO’s eastward expansion and US missile defence plans in Europe.
China surfaced again at their final in-person meeting on April 6, 2008, at the Bocharov Ruchei presidential residence in Sochi. Bush cautioned Putin against underestimating Beijing’s ambitions and urged long-term strategic planning. Putin acknowledged China’s rise but maintained that Western military infrastructure near Russia’s borders posed a more pressing danger.
The documents offer insight into how two major powers assessed China well before its current dominance of global geopolitics. They also shed light on why Russia later moved closer to Beijing, despite lingering mistrust — not out of ideological alignment, but as a strategic response to pressure from the West.
According to the National Security Archive, the transcripts provide an unfiltered view of early 21st-century power calculations, capturing a moment when China was already seen as a looming force, even if neither Washington nor Moscow fully agreed on how to respond.
With inputs from agencies
