The BoE raised its key rate to 4% from 3.75%, warning that further hikes may be needed if the US-Iran conflict keeps energy prices elevated.

The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in over three years on Thursday and warned that at least one more increase was likely if the US-Iran conflict continues, as it started on a path that its main peers have already embarked on.

British inflation is likely to reach around 5% in the middle of next year, the BoE said, more than double the central bank’s target and a blow for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has sought to ease cost-of-living pressures. 

While there was little evidence so far of faster inflation outside sectors directly affected by higher energy costs, the BoE said the amount of inflation pressure coming down the road from months of high energy prices required a rate rise now. 

“Today’s increase shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes. But unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem likely to be the last increase,” Governor Andrew Bailey said. 

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise rates to 4% from 3.75%, but in contrast to expectations in a Reuters poll, the dissent came not from a policymaker seeking to keep rates on hold but one seeking a bigger hike.

Catherine Mann, who said last month that the BoE had been slow to reassure markets that it had a grip on inflation, voted for a half-point interest rate increase to 4.25%. 

MPC DISAGREE ON LIKELY EXTENT OF FURTHER RATE RISES**

 In minutes of November’s decision, Mann said she was concerned about “non-linear inflation risks” as consumer price inflation had risen to 3.5% in September, which she viewed as a potential trigger for a loss of confidence in the central bank. 

In previous months, Bailey had argued the BoE could take its time before deciding to raise rates, as it had higher interest rates at the start of the conflict than other central banks and investors had previously expected it to cut rates this year. 

Coming into Thursday’s decision, both investors and financial markets had been near-certain there would be a rate rise this month. But financial markets also priced in three quarter-point rate rises for 2027, more than most economists think is likely. 

Bailey said such differences reflected financial markets pricing in tail risks of a sharp further rise in energy prices, while economists’ expectations were based on the single most likely path of a smaller amount of further tightening. 

“Without news which softens the risks to inflationary pressures, I can see the argument for a further increase in rates,” he said in the policy minutes. 

Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said a further rate hike was likely to be needed in the near term. 

External MPC member Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill – who, like Mann, had voted for a rate hike in September – talked of a need for “further tightening” and “additional hikes”, respectively. 

MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor – who had previously been reluctant to raise rates – said they would need stronger evidence of second-round effects before backing more tightening. 

BOE PREDICTS FASTER GROWTH, HIGHER INFLATION**

 In its central forecast for growth and inflation, the BoE revised up its expectations for growth this year and next to 1.6% and 1.3% – notably stronger than the government’s Office for Budget Responsibility predicted last week. 

The upgrade follows strong official data this year, and the BoE attributed some of the strength to spending on artificial intelligence and to a small, temporary boost from Finance Minister John Healey’s annual budget last week. 

But the BoE now sees inflation peaking at an average 4.8% in the second quarter of next year. In a more adverse scenario where oil prices peak at around $130 a barrel, compared with around $100 currently, inflation hits 6.2% in the third quarter of 2027. 

Under the central scenario, inflation is not seen returning to 2% until the third quarter of 2028, six months later than the BoE predicted in July, when forecasts were prepared during a lull in the US-Iran conflict that had lowered energy costs. 

After inflation and taxes, British households’ income from work was set to fall both this year and next, the BoE said. 

Healey’s annual budget would lower inflation by 0.25 percentage points at its peak but raise it later on when temporary cost-of-living assistance expired, the BoE added.