Ottawa: Pakistan’s nuclear posture is once again under the global spotlight after Canadian geopolitical commentator Jiang Xueqin warned that, if nuclear weapons are ever used in a future conflict, Pakistan could be the first country to cross the nuclear threshold.

Speaking on YouTuber Raj Shamani’s podcast, Jiang stopped short of predicting an imminent nuclear confrontation. He said a global taboo against nuclear weapons makes their use during the present generation extremely unlikely. But he warned that if this taboo were ever broken, the India-Pakistan front could become the most dangerous flashpoint.

Why Pakistan Is Under the Spotlight

Jiang’s argument centres not simply on Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons, but on what he described as the country’s political and institutional vulnerabilities.

He characterised Pakistan as a weak, disorganised and corruption-plagued nuclear-armed state and questioned whether its systems would always be capable of maintaining restraint during a major crisis.

His assessment points to a disturbing possibility: a conventional military confrontation could escalate rapidly if Islamabad felt its survival was at stake.

India’s No-First-Use Policy vs Pakistan’s Strategic Ambiguity

The sharp contrast between the nuclear doctrines of India and Pakistan is central to the debate.

India has maintained a declared No First Use (NFU) policy, while Pakistan has deliberately avoided making a comparable commitment and has instead relied on strategic ambiguity.

According to the 2025 figures cited from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India possesses around 190 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has approximately 170.

India’s superior conventional military and economic capabilities have long shaped Pakistan’s security calculations, with Islamabad treating nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent against a stronger neighbour.

Jiang’s assessment is blunt: India does not require nuclear weapons to counter Pakistan, whereas Pakistan could view them as a last-resort instrument if it believes its conventional position is collapsing.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Rhetoric Under the Scanner

Concerns over Islamabad’s nuclear posture have repeatedly been fuelled by statements from its political and military leadership.

In August 2025, Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was reported to have warned that Pakistan, as a nuclear-armed state, could take others down with it if it believed it was sinking. He was also reported to have threatened Indian dams with missile strikes. India subsequently dismissed such rhetoric as nuclear sabre-rattling.

During the India-Pakistan military confrontation in May 2025 following the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif also referred to the possibility of nuclear weapons being used, although he later characterised it as a remote scenario.

Pakistan’s nuclear rhetoric is not new. Similar warnings have emerged during previous periods of India-Pakistan tensions, including after the Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot air strike in 2019.

While Pakistan’s civilian leadership has repeatedly described its nuclear arsenal as a credible minimum deterrent intended for national defence, statements emanating from its military establishment continue to generate international concern.

‘Nuclear State’ or Nuclear Brinkmanship?

The latest warning has therefore revived a fundamental question over Pakistan’s nuclear strategy: is its arsenal primarily a deterrent, or could it become an instrument of escalation during a crisis?

For India and the wider international community, the concern is not merely the number of warheads held by Pakistan, but the risks associated with nuclear signalling, political instability and military escalation in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

Earlier Predictions Put Jiang Back in the Spotlight

Jiang Xueqin has recently attracted significant attention online, with supporters pointing to several earlier geopolitical predictions that they say subsequently materialised.

He reportedly predicted Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency in 2024 and has also been credited with predicting developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

His latest warning, however, carries far greater implications. Any nuclear confrontation involving India and Pakistan would have consequences extending far beyond South Asia.

The central message from Jiang’s assessment is stark: if the world ever witnesses a first nuclear strike in a future conflict, Pakistan could be among the countries most likely to be at the centre of that crisis.